An international court ruling could escalate geopolitical tensions around the world. That’s according to School of Public Policy Professor John Rennie Short, who explains in a new op-ed how an ongoing dispute in the South China Sea could have significant global consequences.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled earlier this week that China has no legal basis to claim a large swath of maritime territory in the South China Sea, a group of islands that is currently in the midst of a territorial dispute between China and the Philippines.

In an article in The Conversation titled “Troubled waters: conflict in the South China Sea explained,” Short explains that the court ruling about the sovereignty of the islands “…will likely create more problems than solutions. Interpreted by China as a U.S.-inspired power move, it will increase rather than decrease geopolitical tensions.”

Short writes that while the court’s decision will strengthen other countries’ counter-efforts to Chinese maritime expansion, it will not stop China from moving forward, especially since the court has no enforcement power.

“China will snub the legal international order and seek bilateral negotiations with the Philippines,” he explains, adding, “the ruling does not make diplomacy any easier for the U.S., which now has to deal with an ally who has won a legal decision but also a rival who will not back down under the muscular pose of President Xi Jinping, even after the court ruling.”

As a political geography and globalization researcher, Short says that China’s motive is seeking international political and economic clout as it continues to build up atolls and islands in the region. He provides the historical background for China’s maneuvers, including Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), which were first introduced in the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of The Sea.

“Part of China’s strategy in the waters of the South China Sea then is to lay claim over islands, natural and artificial, in order to establish sovereignty to claim the surrounding waters,” he writes.

The United States Navy has taken actions in recent months that Short says are designed to enforce the idea that the South China Sea is considered open water and that the U.S. is still a power in the region.

“Yet, conflict between Washington and Beijing can be managed. There are vast areas of mutual economic interest and shared global objectives,” Short explains. “A greater fear is that a local event can spin out of control….And often it is events at the local that can influence the global.”

Read the original article in The Conversation (updated July 12). Additional media coverage can be found below:

What’s happening in the South China Sea? (U.S. News) 
#SouthChinaSea: ‘China wants to offset negative outcomes for its reputation’ (Radio Sputnik) 
US-China: ‘Chances of a conflagration in the Pacific region are quite high’ (Radio Sputnik) 
Troubled waters: conflict in the South China Sea explained (Associated Press)   
Troubled waters: conflict in the South China Sea explained (Honolulu Civil Beat News) 

Header image: John Rennie Short. Photo by Marlayna Demond ’11 for UMBC. 

Bottom image: Ships from the George Washington Carrier Strike Group (GWCSG) and Royal Malaysian Navy steam in formation during a photo exercise. The GWCSG is on patrol in the 7th Fleet area of operations supporting security and stability in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Trevor Welsh/Released) CC by-SA 2.0.

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Why do half of U.S. doctoral students leave before earning their degrees?  A new article in The Atlantic examines graduate student experiences to understand the factors that contribute to this troubling statistic, and what universities like UMBC are doing to support doctoral students in completing their graduate programs.

Janet Rutledge, vice provost and dean of the graduate school, suggests in the article that lack of clear communication between faculty and graduate students can lead to negative outcomes. Faculty members, busy juggling research, teaching, and service commitments, don’t always communicate the full reasoning behind what they say and do, Rutledge says. She suggests, “it is only natural that a student makes certain assumptions based on what they have been able to observe,” which can lead to miscommunication and leave students feeling unsupported.

The Atlantic article highlights how communication can impact a student’s sense of academic performance and likelihood of success through the experience of Marcella Wilson ‘08 Ph.D., computer science, now a lecturer in information systems at UMBC. Wilson earned her undergraduate degree from a small, close-knit institution. When she arrived at UMBC to pursue her Ph.D. she remembers missing those close ties, and losing confidence in her ability to complete her degree.

Rutledge introduced Wilson to PROMISE: Maryland’s Alliance for Graduate Education and the Professoriate. The statewide collaboration, with a particularly strong presence at UMBC, supports the academic and professional development of graduate students, particularly those pursuing degrees in STEM fields and those from underrepresented populations.

“Once I began to believe I could graduate, I realized that it was not about [the professors],” said Wilson, of the PROMISE program’s impact on her education. She shared, “I have good relationships with them all now.”

The Chronicle of Higher Education, in a new article on faculty diversity, credits PROMISE with increasing enrollment and degree completion in STEM Ph.D. and master’s degree programs at UMBC over the last ten years. Describing what makes the program tick, PROMISE Director Renetta G. Tull told the paper about the close mentorship, sense of community, seminars and other personal and professional development resources that support underrepresented minority students in completing graduate degrees.  

“We put a lot of family structure in these programs,” said Tull. “We took down a lot of cold boundaries of academic walls.”

Read the full articles “Why Do So Many Graduate Students Quit?” in The Atlantic, and “To Diversify the Faculty, Start Here,” in The Chronicle for Higher Education.